2012 Real Estate Market Outlook

California Housing Forecast 2011-2012 by California Association of Realtors

Wednesday, I attended a Women’s Council of Realtors seminar where Leslie Appleton-Young, Chief Economist for California Association of Realtors, presented her 2012 economic forecast in addition to comments on the current economy and the real estate market.  I always look forward to hearing her speak because she has specific information for California.  Highlights of her speech are below.  For information on our Palos Verdes real estate market, click here or on the “Statistics” tab above.

  • The GDP has stalled and consumer spending has slowed.
  • Since 2009 California unemployment has been 12% and job losses bottomed in 2009.
  • Jobs in construction is way down and the financial sector is down also.  Education and Health sectors are up.
  • September 2011 showed a slight (.2%) rise in Consumer Confidence
  • The Consumer Price Index is up 2% (3.8% with Food and Energy)
  • California recovers sooner than the U.S. according to 40 year statistics.
  • U.S. deficit is currently 11% of GDP.
  • First half of 2011 real estate unit sales down .4% but up 10.2% year to year.
  • Foreclosures will be with us for another 4-5 years but they peaked in California in 2009.
  • According to CAR survey, 32% of regular sales have multiple offers; 52% of distressed properties have multiple offers.
  • 2012 forecast is 1% increase in real estate units sold and 1.7% increase in median price.

It was interesting to note that according to the CAR survey of buyers and sellers:

  • More than half of the sellers think the direction of home prices is “down”
  • More than half of the buyers think the direction of home prices is “don’t know” – yet they bought the home anyway, which says to me that they purchased the home to live in and enjoy regardless of the market.

Chart courtesy of California Association of Realtors