What is the outlook for Palos Verdes real estate? I frequently hear that question and last week, I attended a presentation by Leslie Appleton-Young, Chief Economist for California Association of Realtors. Here are some highlights:
- In the Summer of 2007 our area started to decline because buyers could not get jumbo loans.
- Statewide, low end of the market is getting bid up; high end will still get adjustment.
- “Local data is critical”
- Does not see shadow inventory of foreclosures coming. She sees 2 to 3 years of slow workouts on foreclosures.
- According to the California Association of Realtor survey, over half of the home purchased had multiple offers.
- “Not building enough housing in California…in five years we will have a housing shortage.”
- In January 2010, only 300 new housing permits were taken out in all of Los Angeles County.
- For the most part, “prices have bottomed but depends on price range”.
- Statewide 2010 Forecast is 3.3% increase in median price and 3.5% decrease in the number of homes sold; 30-fixed interest rates forecasted at 5.6% (up from 5.2% in 2009).
Leslies’s data for Palos Verdes was based on 125 sales in 2009 which means it was only for Palos Verdes Estates as we had approximately 456 sales for 4 cities on the Palos Verdes Peninsula. Her charts show median price for February 2010 at $1,387,500 up 6.7% month to month and down 0.5% year to year. Sunday’s Los Angeles Times showed a 27.1% increase for February year to year for zip code 90274 (Palos Verdes Estates, Rolling Hills, Rolling Hills Estates and Palos Verdes Peninsula; for Rancho Palos Verdes 90275, it was a 12.1% increase. Please click here or on the statistics tab above to view charts for the entire Palos Verdes Peninsula.
Chart courtesy of California Association of REALTORS
